Westminster Voting Intention: Poll of Polls

CON 43(42.9)

LAB 33(32.9)

LD 13(13)

GRN 3(2.9)

BRX 3(3)

End Date	Company	Client	CON	LAB	LD	GRN	BRX	Lead
06 Dec 2019	Panelbase Online		43	34	13		3	+9
04 Dec 2019	Ipsos MORI Phone	Evening Standard	44	32	13	3	2	+12
03 Dec 2019	Savanta ComRes Online	Telegraph	42	32	12	2	3	+10
03 Dec 2019	YouGov Online	Times/Sky	42	33	12	4	4	+9
02 Dec 2019	Kantar Public Online		44	32	15	3	2	+12
02 Dec 2019	ICM Online		42	35	13	2	3	+7
30 Nov 2019	Survation Phone	Good Morning Britain	42	33	11	4	3	+9
30 Nov 2019	Deltapoll Online	Mail on Sunday	45	32	15	1	3	+13
29 Nov 2019	YouGov Online	Sunday Times	43	34	13	3	2	+9
29 Nov 2019	Opinium Online	Observer	46	31	13	3	2	+15
29 Nov 2019	BMG Online	Independent	39	33	13	5	4	+6
28 Nov 2019	Savanta ComRes Online	Sunday Telegraph	43	33	13	3	4	+10
28 Nov 2019	Panelbase Online		42	34	13	3	4	+8
26 Nov 2019	Savanta ComRes Online	Telegraph	41	34	13	2	5	+7
26 Nov 2019	YouGov Online	Times/Sky	43	32	13	2	4	+11

This is a rolling poll of polls, which is weighted so that a poll loses 1/12 (0.083) of weighting every day after the end date of the survey (which isn't always the date it is published). Therefore, a poll where the fieldwork finished today has a weighting of 1, yesterday 11/12, 2 days ago 10/12, and so on. When a poll is 12 days old it has a weighting of 0, which means it will drop out of the poll of polls altogether.

In many ways, a rolling average of polls is not a foolproof method of determining the current positions of the parties - averaging good polls with bad won't produce better results - but it does give a better idea of the current trend of the polls than just taking the latest poll, which in itself has differences in methodology which could affect the headline figures. As such, the polls which the rolling average has been drawn from are included above, which is likely to highlight any outliers (which satistically happen every 20 polls on average), and you can draw your own conclusion about them - having said that, the outling polls make a very small difference to the overall poll of polls.