Westminster Voting Intention: Poll of Polls

CON 43(42.9)
LAB 33(32.9)
LD 13(13)
GRN 3(2.9)
BRX 3(3)
End Date Company Client CON LAB LD GRN BRX Lead
06 Dec 2019 Panelbase Online 43 34 13 3 +9
04 Dec 2019 Ipsos MORI Phone Evening Standard44 32 13 3 2 +12
03 Dec 2019 Savanta ComRes Online Telegraph42 32 12 2 3 +10
03 Dec 2019 YouGov Online Times/Sky42 33 12 4 4 +9
02 Dec 2019 Kantar Public Online 44 32 15 3 2 +12
02 Dec 2019 ICM Online 42 35 13 2 3 +7
30 Nov 2019 Survation Phone Good Morning Britain42 33 11 4 3 +9
30 Nov 2019 Deltapoll Online Mail on Sunday45 32 15 1 3 +13
29 Nov 2019 YouGov Online Sunday Times43 34 13 3 2 +9
29 Nov 2019 Opinium Online Observer46 31 13 3 2 +15
29 Nov 2019 BMG Online Independent39 33 13 5 4 +6
28 Nov 2019 Savanta ComRes Online Sunday Telegraph43 33 13 3 4 +10
28 Nov 2019 Panelbase Online 42 34 13 3 4 +8
26 Nov 2019 Savanta ComRes Online Telegraph41 34 13 2 5 +7
26 Nov 2019 YouGov Online Times/Sky43 32 13 2 4 +11

This is a rolling poll of polls, which is weighted so that a poll loses 1/12 (0.083) of weighting every day after the end date of the survey (which isn't always the date it is published). Therefore, a poll where the fieldwork finished today has a weighting of 1, yesterday 11/12, 2 days ago 10/12, and so on. When a poll is 12 days old it has a weighting of 0, which means it will drop out of the poll of polls altogether.

In many ways, a rolling average of polls is not a foolproof method of determining the current positions of the parties - averaging good polls with bad won't produce better results - but it does give a better idea of the current trend of the polls than just taking the latest poll, which in itself has differences in methodology which could affect the headline figures. As such, the polls which the rolling average has been drawn from are included above, which is likely to highlight any outliers (which satistically happen every 20 polls on average), and you can draw your own conclusion about them - having said that, the outling polls make a very small difference to the overall poll of polls.