The Bee Blog

#EURef Prediction: UK to Vote Remain
22 June 2016, 10:04pm

A week ago Leave were striding ahead in the polls, the markets got a bit jumpy, the Pound fell against the Dollar, and the betting markets were becoming tight; but in the last week - as usual in referendum campaigns worldwide - the polls moved back towards the status quo and the markets remained calm, and the Pound strengthened again.

The Poll of Polls currently stands at IN 45.3, OUT 44.9; the Forecast is IN 51.3, OUT 48.7. However neither of these is my prediction.

The first thing to note is the Poll of Polls is being slightly held back by older polls that became pretty useless last Thursday afternoon - and I'm taking that into account. Additionally I think turnout will be over 70%, and young voters will be the surprise package when it comes to actually going to vote.

Undecided voters are still around the 10% mark, and I would give Remain a hefty dosage of those who will make up their mind in the polling booth itself - there's plenty of evidence for these voters choosing an option that they believe is less risky and that's almost always the status quo. Polls in this campaign, especially in the final few days, have also shown the public believe that Remaining is the less risky option. Breaking these voters 2:1 in favour of Remain, plus the same boost I've been applying in the Forecast for Gibraltar/NI voters not included in most polls, brings us to my prediction for this referendum;

REMAIN 53.4%

LEAVE 46.6%

There still remains an Ipsos MORI poll to be released in the morning. Other than that, there's a YouGov on-the-day poll (not an exit poll) that will be released at the close of poll.

The majority of results will be in by 4am, and we should have a sense of where things are going by then. We should have a final result before you leave for work in the morning - around 7am.

Time to vote!