Looking back on this year's polls, we can see that Labour were enjoying a 7 point lead on average in January, but as economic confidence has grown so has the Conservative poll rating ... or more accurately, Labour's has been falling. The Tories have actually been getting numbers in the low 30s throughout the entire year, and their position has been largely static. Labour, however, has lost ground from their high 30s mark they have held all the way through to the end of September, ending up with a wafer thin lead at the end of the year (a few polls in the last week have shown a slightly healthier gap for Labour, but we'll have to wait to see if that is any more than normal sample variation).
All this going into a general election year means predictions for who will form the next government are flavour of the month (well, after the turkey anyway). The thing is, we just don't know. Traditionally, polls move back towards the government when general elections come around, but we are far from this situation being a traditional one - coalition government, 4 or 5 party politics in England, various unresolved questions on constitutional settlements - so whether the same thing will happen this time around is anyone's guess!
We'll see you in January when polling resumes.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year
The UK Opinion Bee Team