The Bee Blog

Ashcroft Rochester and Strood By-Election Poll
11 November 2014, 9:15pm

Welcome to a new addition to UK Opinion Bee, The Bee Blog! This will be the place for extra analysis, and more polls that we aren't tracking on the rest of the website. We'll also have a weekly round up on the movement of the Westminster polls. In addition, please let us know (either in the comments or by tweeting us) what other trackers you might be interested in us covering - we were thinking leaders' approval ratings, and/or who would make the best PM.

The first of the additional polls I'm going to concentrate on is one by Lord Ashcroft for next week's Rochester and Strood by-election. The headline numbers are; UKIP 44%, CON 32%, LAB 17%, LD 2%. This is a narrower lead for UKIP than either of Survation's polls, or the one ComRes poll, we've had so far; however the 12 point lead still points to a clear UKIP victory - and although there is plenty of churn in the floating voters, a not insignificant proportion of Labour and Lib Dem supporters look to be voting UKIP. Perhaps in order to give the government a bloody nose, or just to stop the Tories from winning next Thursday.

What is interesting is the questions that Ashcroft asked about voting intention for the general election in May in the same constituency. Of those that gave a preference, 36% said they would Conservative, 35% UKIP, and 21% Labour. Now, people aren't very good at predicting what they might do in the future, and a UKIP win in this by-election might change voters' minds as to who they will vote for in May, but as it stands Mark Reckless will be UKIP's second elected MP from next week, but will have a fight on his hands to hold on to the seat come the general election.

We'll have to wait and see.