The Bee Blog

US Elections: Poll Close Times
This Tuesday, as I'm sure you are aware, is the US Presidential Election and also elections to the US Senate. What you might not know is there is no standardised time - even per time zone - for polls to close; something that Europeans won't be used to. Another thing that might surprise you is that the media will often not bother waiting until the votes are counted before announcing who they think…
Why We Don't Include the SNP on Westminster VI
We get this question asked every now and again. The Scottish National Party have higher GB poll ratings than the Greens, more MPs than the Lib Dems, Greens and UKIP combined, and are the third largest party in the commons - so why don't we include them when reporting Westminster VI? The thing is SNP percentages in GB or UK-wide polls are pretty useless. Firstly, YouGov combine the SNP and…
#EURef Prediction: UK to Vote Remain
A week ago Leave were striding ahead in the polls, the markets got a bit jumpy, the Pound fell against the Dollar, and the betting markets were becoming tight; but in the last week - as usual in referendum campaigns worldwide - the polls moved back towards the status quo and the markets remained calm, and the Pound strengthened again. The OpinionBee.uk Poll of Polls currently stands at IN 45.3,…
Just How Well Did Labour Do on Thursday?
Unsuprisingly, there has been some debate over the last few days on Labour's performance on Thursday. The Shadow Chancellor said that the "experts" predicted a 175-200 English council seat loss for Labour, so losing less than 20 represented a good result. Others suggested that the opposition, a year after a general election, should be gaining many hundreds of seats from a government…
Open Data is Pollsters' Next Big Step
Opinion polling is nothing new. The first voting intention opinion poll in the UK was one by Gallup in February 1939 and regular polling was undertaken before the 1945 general election and for every election since. But in the last decade, with Internet access and a big increase in online polling, the amount of data publicly available has sky rocketed. Unfortunately, the way that data is presented…
EU Referendum (#EURef) Spotify Playlist
As a bit of fun, I've been putting together a playlist of songs for the EU Referendum. Some are direct references to the campaigns, some are a bit more about decisions and countdowns, and others have a bit of European feel to them. In particular, Adele's Hello seems to talk about Cameron's negotiations ... I hope you like it and share amongst your friends, and if you have any more…
Twitter Updates Now Come With Twitter Cards
All our Polls, Blogs, and Poll of Polls that are posted on twitter now come with twitter cards! This means that when a poll, blog, or our EU or Westminster Poll of Polls is linked in a tweet, a nice little box will appear on the twitter website or app giving more poll information or preview of the content. Find this post on twitter; it should have the box too! (Twitter cards don't appear on…
YouGov Methodology Changes
YouGov have made some methodology changes after a review brought on by the industry-wide polling failures before the 2015 General Election. This was applied to tonight's poll for the Times, which detailed the changes as follows; This poll included changes to YouGov’s political methodology as part of our ongoing process of refinement. We have dropped our previous weighting by newspaper…
Now Tracking Welsh Assembly Polls
I'm happy to annouce that we are now tracking Welsh Assembly voting intention polls. You can see an archive of polls since 2013 for the Regional and Consitiuency votes. This is exciting as we also learned today that the next Welsh Political Barometer poll will be released next week, including the Assembly voting intentions on Monday. Welsh Westminster VI, EU Membership, and leader ratings will…
ICM Note on Methodology
Whilst picking up the tables for Monday's ICM/Guardian poll, I noticed an interesting little note from Martin Boon at the bottom of the page about methodology. It goes like this; That Labour stand above their election share is possibly less the result of a commanding leadership performance that has invigorated the Labour masses, but more likely the continued over-statement of Labour in phone polls…
No More Polls Until January
Unless something unexpected turns up in the mean time, there will be no more polls for the rest of the year.Looking back on this year's polls, we can see that Labour were enjoying a 7 point lead on average in January, but as economic confidence has grown so has the Conservative poll rating ... or more accurately, Labour's has been falling. The Tories have actually been getting numbers in the low…
Survation/Unite Stockton South Poll
Today we have figures on the Conservative held marginal seat of Stockton South, in a poll by Survation for Unite the Union. It is significant as it was the only Tory gain in the North East in 2010. The headline numbers, with changes from the General Election, are; CON 39% (n/c), LAB 37% (-1), LD 3% (-12), UKIP 18% (+15), OTHERS 3% (-2). UKIP are up in line with the national polls and the Lib Dems…
Weekly Westminster Polling Roundup
Welcome to the first of our weekly polling roundups. We hope to bring you a roundup of the Westminster polls each weekend, with a view to point out interesting trends and other figures that might be behind the headlines. We started the week with a lot of speculation over the leadership of Ed Miliband, and whether the Labour party were about to stage a coup. The polls have recently shown a…
Ashcroft Rochester and Strood By-Election Poll
Welcome to a new addition to UK Opinion Bee, The Bee Blog! This will be the place for extra analysis, and more polls that we aren't tracking on the rest of the website. We'll also have a weekly round up on the movement of the Westminster polls. In addition, please let us know (either in the comments or by tweeting us) what other trackers you might be interested in us covering - we were…
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